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FEBRUARY 12,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

TODAY – Oh, may I remind you that today is actually Lincoln's Birthday.  Our readership is knowledgeable, but I wonder how many Americans think that Lincoln and Washington were both born on President's Day, and that both were immediately rushed to a department-store sale.  In fact, Lincoln was born on this day in 1809.  George Washington was actually born on February 11, 1731, according to the Julian calendar in use at the time.  However, Britain and all its colonies later adopted the Gregorian calendar, moving Washington's birthdate to February 22, 1732.   There is talk that if Hillary is elected we will adopt the Clintonian calendar, allowing us to change our birthdates to anything we wish.  There are some who favor the Obaman calendar, allowing us to be born in any country we wish.

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – From London's Daily Mail – Dr Kevin Curran, a senior member of the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers and a computer scientist at the University of Ulster, argues cloud computing has the potential to transform artificial intelligence so robots can become far more lifelike.  Speaking to MailOnline, he said: 'It seems that when these machines do act in ways just like adults, where they can interact and talk in real-time, robots will become the perfect companion.  'We have got to ask ourselves will robots be re-purposed for companionship? Will humans become intimate with robots? The answer, I believe, is yes.  I want to be there when a robot files the first sexual harassment suit.

NO LOVING IN TEHRAN – From AP:   TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran says it is cracking down on Valentine's Day celebrations and shops engaging in them will be guilty of a crime.  Iranian news outlets reported the police directive Friday warning retailers against promoting "decadent Western culture through Valentine's Day rituals." Police informed Tehran's coffee and ice cream shops trade union to avoid any gatherings in which boys and girls exchange Valentine's Day gifts.  The annual Feb. 14 homage to romance, which tradition says is named after an early Christian martyr, has become popular in recent years in Iran and other Middle East countries.  I'm sure Michelle Obama is against coffee and ice cream also.  You see, we have so much in common with our dear, new Iranian friends.

BAMA LOVE – It's weird watching Bernie and Hillary slug it out over who loves Barack Obama more.  I mean, you'd think they were talking about Mr. Popularity.  In fact, Obama is quite unpopular.  So why the public love?  It's because each candidate is trying to win the large black vote in the upcoming South Carolina primary.  I wonder if the pandering is worth it.  Obama has delivered nothing to blacks except talk.  Why would black voters worry about which candidate loves him more?  It simply shows how distant the Democrats are from the public at large, and the degree to which the African-American vote has become the swing vote in the party's primaries.  Not a good picture to present in the general election campaign.

February 12, 2016       Permalink   

WHAT DOES BERNIE WANT? – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:   Will we ever be told by a mainstream media that never asked a serious question of Barack Obama when he first ran for president?  Or will we be given the euphemisms and labels that the mainstreamers often use to cover the actual ideas of the political left?  Phrases like "anti-war." 

David Brooks has written a superb account of what Bernie wants.  He wants an America more like northern Europe.  Dull, unimaginative northern Europe.  Not very adventurous.  Not very imaginative.  Nanny state all the way.  This is a must-read, the best summary of Bernie that I've read so far.  From Brooks, in The New York Times: 

First, Sanders would centralize power in Washington. If you radically increase the amount of money going to the Washington establishment, as Sanders would, you’re giving that establishment greater resources to control American life.

Second, Sanders would weaken the ability of members of the middle class to make choices about their own lives. He would raise taxes on the rich, but there is only so much money you can squeeze out of such a small group of people. European welfare states generally rely on a highly regressive value-added/sales tax — usually around 20 to 25 percent.

Middle classes across Europe bear a much higher tax load than the American middle class. As Austan Goolsbee, a former economic adviser to President Obama, has noted, you really can’t have a Swedish-style welfare state without a broad high tax burden. That means less spending power for most Americans, and fewer resources to choose one’s own lifestyle.

Third, Sanders would change the incentive structure for the country’s most successful people. He proposes raising the top tax rate to 52 percent. As Josh Barro noted in The Times, when you add in state, local and other taxes, top earners would be paying a combined tax rate over 73 percent. In high-tax locales like New York City and California, it would be even more.

COMMENT:  Please read the rest.  It's equally depressing.  What Bernie wants is a gray society, a society where success and achievement, ever more rare, would be resented, not praised. 

No more America.  That's what Bernie wants.  I hope, if Bernie gets the nomination, that the Republicans know how to articulate everything wrong with Bernie's new society.  Boredom should never be a national goal.

February 12, 2016       Permalink

AN "AGREEMENT" ON SYRIA – AT 9:43 A.M. ET:  Grand Admiral Kerry, our secretary of state, has negotiated some kind of agreement on the Syrian civil war, but no one is exactly sure what it is.  From The New York Times: 

MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a “cessation of hostilities” within a week on the way to a more formal cease-fire.

“We have agreed to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities in one week’s time,” Mr. Kerry said early Friday morning, after all-day meetings. “That is ambitious.”

“The real test is whether all the parties honor those commitments,” he said, sitting next to Mr. Lavrov, the two men doing their best to appear cooperative after weeks of trading accusations over the accelerated Russian air campaign that has given new support to the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.

Oh, those Nobel Prizes wait in the wings.

If executed, the agreement, forged by the International Syria Support Group, would mark the first sustained and formally declared halt to fighting in Syria since the civil war began in 2011, early in the Arab uprisings. But even a formal cease-fire would be partial — it excludes the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and the Nusra Front, both designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations — and highly fragile.

COMMENT:  Whaa..?  It excludes ISIS?  That's like Japan surrendering on the USS Missouri in 1945 and declaring, "Of course, this doesn't include the Army." 

I'm not a betting man, but I'd be willing to put a symbolic bet on the notion that this will fall apart within weeks.  But hey, if it lasts more than a month, Kerry could think of running for president again.

February 12, 2016       Permalink 

MORE WARMTH FROM OUR NEW FRIENDS – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  As we fight an election campaign, Iran steps up its anti-American rhetoric while benefiting from the tens of billions we just sent them as a result of the nuclear deal.  Our negotiators are so smart.  From NBC News:

TEHRAN, Iran — If you thought anti-American sentiment in Iran had waned after the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions, you could be wrong.

Tens of thousands of Iranians marched in Tehran's Azadi Square Thursday, chanting "Death to America and Israel" and waving anti-Western placards on the 37th anniversary of the country's 1979 Islamic revolution.

Ahmad Norouzi, a nurse, wore a bandana on his head that read: "We will not allow foreign influence."

"I have a message for Obama," the 37-year-old said. "You can't do anything to us and anything you say is a lie."

Sanaz, a 22-year-old secretary, also joined the rally.

"I am happy that I was able to come here today, and as an Iranian I can put my fist in America's mouth and say Death to America," said Sanaz, who would only give one name.

There were several homages in the rally to the incident last month where 10 U.S. Navy sailors were detained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard — including a parade float.

President Hassan Rouhani gave an address, saying that Iranians will "never yield" to outside pressure.

"Our nuclear victory showed to the world that Iranians are capable of winning any battle, including diplomatic battles," Rouhani told the crowds.

COMMENT:  How inspiring.  And our nuclear agreement, even if the Iranians comply with it, gives them a route to an atomic bomb after a certain number of years.

And they still curse Obama.  When will we learn that thug regimes cannot be appeased?

And how does President Sanders sound to you?

February 12,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 11,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE DEBATE – Hillary and Bernie debated this evening, and what was stunning was how far to the left the Democratic Party has drifted.  The prevailing "narrative" is that Obama isn't left-wing enough, nor racial enough.  The attacks on the police were extraordinary.  Both candidates vied for the title of "progressive of the year."  At times they were speaking only to African-Americans, who are now the swing vote within the Democratic Party.  You would never think the country was under threat of another terrorist attack, or that criminals were dangerous people.  I felt I was drifting back to the 1960s, where criminals were described by the liberal establishment as victims of social injustice.  This is dangerous stuff, especially because so many young people buy into it.  Hillary is depending on the black vote to save her in South Carolina.  But if Bernie can penetrate that vote, I don't see where Hillary can do.

SOFT GLOVES – We're beginning to see the Obamization of Bernie Sanders.  That is, he is rapidly becoming the anointed candidate of the establishment liberal press.  The guy's got more baggage than American Airlines, and Hillary's e-mail errors pale in comparison to Bernie's utter contempt for national security.  And yet, find me a tough question he's been asked.  This is a man who honeymooned in the Soviet Union and opposed the very policies that allowed us to win the Cold War without fighting a Third World War.  Anybody care?  We're told Americans are tired of being pushed around in the world, under Obama, but many Dems want to nominate a man who wants even more pushing.  It's hard to believe that Sanders, the keeper of the hammer and sickle, could actually be elected.  But we didn't believe an inexperienced black kid from Chicago could be elected either.  I say we should raise the voting age to 40.  Then we can get some maturity into the process.  Make that 50.

SOUTH CAROLINA – A new poll shows Trump with 32%, Cruz with 26%, Rubio with 20%, and Bush with 10%.  The voting is a week from Saturday.  If those numbers are accurate, and they hold, South Carolina would show that the race is still wide open.  Trump is showing no real progress.  He's stuck in the low 30s.  Cruz and Rubio together, splitting the anti-Trump vote, have 46%.  If Bush can't improve his 10% number, he might consider getting out of the race.  However, his rage against his onetime protégé, Marco Rubio, is genuine, and that might keep him in.  I don't see Kasich or Carson as serious factors.  More and more, as we have reported, insiders are talking up the idea of an open convention, where no one arrives with enough votes to secure the nomination.  Such fun.  Such intrigue.  What a movie.

February 11, 2016      Permalink 

MARCO, WHERE YOU GOIN',  MARCO?  – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  A week ago he was golden boy, the great hope of a Republican Party wary of Donald Trump.  Today he's the guy who blew a debate big time, and looks like a kid whose prom date cancelled at the last minute.

Where does Marco Rubio go?  He is articulate, young and dynamic, and one of his party's best spokesmen on foreign affairs.  He usually has the lowest polling negatives of any major candidate.  But his finish, back in the pack, in New Hampshire, was a severe punch.  It isn't going to be an easy ride from now on. 

But...remember that "open convention" we suggested earlier?  That seems part of the Rubio strategy.  From AP: 

BLUFFTON, S.C. (AP) -- The best hope of the Republican establishment just a week ago, Marco Rubio suddenly faces a path to his party's presidential nomination that could require a brokered national convention.

That's according to Rubio's campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, who told The Associated Press that this week's disappointing performance in New Hampshire will extend the Republican nomination fight for another three months, if not longer. It's a worst-case scenario for Rubio and many Republican officials alike who hoped to avoid a prolonged and painful nomination fight in 2016.

"We very easily could be looking at May - or the convention," Sullivan said aboard Rubio's charter jet from New Hampshire to South Carolina on Wednesday. "I would be surprised if it's not May or the convention."

The public embrace of a possible brokered convention marks a sharp shift in rhetoric from Rubio's top adviser that could be designed to raise alarm bells among Republican officials. Yet days after a disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire and looking up at Donald Trump in next-up South Carolina, Rubio's presidential ambitions are truly facing growing odds.

While he downplayed his dilemma on his first day in South Carolina after the New Hampshire setback, the first-term Florida senator discussed his political challenges at length during an unusual 45-minute question-and-answer session with reporters aboard his campaign plane on Wednesday. He answered questions until there weren't any more, noting afterward that he hadn't held a session that long with reporters since his days as Florida's House speaker.

In remarks that were at times personal and others defiant, he also may have simply needed to talk it out to help process his predicament. It also seemed he needed to prove to the political world, himself and his family that he could face the biggest test of his young presidential bid.

COMMENT:  Nothing is permanent here.  Remember Iowa?  Didn't they hold caucuses just last week?  I think so.  Today no one in politics remembers where Iowa is.  It is day by day in this election year.

As I write this, the Congressional Black Caucus is about to announce its endorsement of Hillary Clinton, which should be of substantial help to Clinton in South Carolina, where Dems vote on February 27th.  Clinton is looking to break Bernie's momentum, and South Carolina, with its large black vote, is the place to do it.

February 11, 2016      Permalink

THE PRICE OF GOLD – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  Always an interesting economic indicator.  There may be a new gold rush on.  From Reuters:   

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold surged nearly 4 percent on Thursday to its highest in a year as fears about financial instability, a lower dollar and U.S. Treasury yields persuaded investors to seek refuge in the precious metal.

Traders said financial instability fears were fuelled by European bank shares slumping to multi-year lows, with concerns mounting over banks' profitability in a low-growth and low-interest rate environment.

Spot gold jumped as much as 3.6 percent to $1,240.90 an ounce, its highest since February 2015, and was up 3 percent at $1,233.70 at 1254 GMT. It is on track for its biggest daily rise since Dec. 1, 2014.

"We have a good explanation for gold's rally; it is to do with worries about the U.S. economy and the rest of the world," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said.

COMMENT:  The president of the United States seems uninterested.  He just wants to get through the next 11 months without this country winning anywhere.  Hillary Clinton is busy proving she's a progressive.  And Bernie Sanders wouldn't touch gold because he once saw an oil company CEO wear some. 

But one can sense the growing economic fears.  And remember, an economic train wreck occurred six weeks before the 2008 election, helping Obama get elected. 

February 11, 2016       Permalink

THE CAMPAIGN – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  I went into the Socialist Republic of Manhattan yesterday to hear an off-the-record talk by a former U.S. senator who really knows the political ropes. 

His assessment is that we're at the beginning of this campaign, and I agree.  Almost anything can happen from now on.  Consider:  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton can become the underdog if Bernie keeps denting her numbers.   And/or, Hillary can be crushed by the FBI probe.  In that case, would Bernie be nominated?  Probably not.  Obama would want Biden, and Biden could step in, choose Elizabeth Warren early as his V.P. choice to pacify the "progressives," and steal Bernie's thunder.

Or, Hillary's minority-group firewall could hold, and Bernie could become an asterisk.

On the GOP side, Trump could win primary after primary and still not get the nomination because he's only polling in the low thirties.  Not enough to win.  Jeb, who is well financed, can run all the way to the convention.  Ted Cruz, a conservative favorite, could do the same.  You could literally have an open convention.  After a certain number of convention ballots, delegates are free to go anywhere. 

Or...former Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York could get in.  No fundraisers needed.  Heavy campaigning experience.  As we've noted, he could, early on, poll at 20%, meaning he's the kingmaker, able to take more votes from one side than the other.

Or...another candidate can get in.  Do not underestimate John Kerry.  He ran for president in 2004 and almost won.  Family has lots of money from his wife's ketchup fortune (Heinz).  The Dems might see him as safe.  Yes, he's a constant screw-up, but a friendly media can deal with that.

Or...a major event, like a terrorist attack, could change everything. 

Or...the economy can spiral downward and mass layoffs begin.

Or...gas at the pump could go to $1.50, the Dems would say that if the GOP were elected, prices would soar again.  They could be believed.

Or...biology could intervene.  President William Henry Harrison died on his 32nd day in office.  So, we could inaugurate someone in January and have someone changing the drapes in February.

It's early, it's early, and very exciting.

February 11,  2016     Permalink